# Happy Healthy You: how every number in the report was calculated

Prepared by Team Empathy, 3 September 2026, so you (or your Claude) can pull the model apart
and check it against your own data. Every figure traces to your own accounts. Nothing here is
an industry benchmark.

## Data sources and windows

| Source | What we read | Window |
|---|---|---|
| Google Search Console (happyhealthyyou.com.au) | Full query set, 165,022 named queries, clicks, impressions, positions, by country | 1 Sep 2025 to 28 Aug 2026 (GSC lags ~3 days) |
| Google Analytics 4 (property 302925420) | Sessions, transactions, revenue, landing pages, channels | 1 Sep 2025 to 28 Aug 2026 |
| Shopify admin (read directly, 3 Sep 2026) | Total sales, orders, new vs returning, sessions by referrer, customer cohort grid | 1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026 |
| Keyword volumes | Google Keyword Planner + SEMrush + Ahrefs, median of the three per term | Pulled 3 Sep 2026, Australia |
| Authority and competitors | DataForSEO (its 0 to 1000 domain rank folded to /100; not an Ahrefs DR) | Pulled 3 Sep 2026, Australia |
| Live SERP checks | DataForSEO Google SERPs, location Australia | 3 Sep 2026 |

Currency: AUD throughout.

## Step 1: split your search demand four ways

Every one of the 165,022 named GSC queries was classified as:
- **Own brand**: Happy Healthy You, Happy Hormones and the whole Happy product range
  (enumerated from your live Shopify products sitemap, not guessed), plus Lisa Curry and Jeff
  Butterworth. 372,661 impressions, 29,453 clicks, 7.9% CTR.
- **Competitor brand**: Ritual Labs (the US "Happy Liver" name collision) and Happy Mammoth.
  432,692 impressions, 5,697 clicks.
- **Name collision**: "happy liver" and similar with no brand qualifier either way. 206,411
  impressions, 9,369 clicks. Excluded from the addressable market because the demand is not
  durably yours.
- **Genuine non-branded category demand**: everything else. 2,705,519 impressions, 8,436
  clicks, **0.31% CTR**. This is the only slice the money model runs on.

## Step 2: size the winnable market (the denominator)

- 164 category terms triangulated across three volume sources (median taken) = 504,535
  searches a month in Australia.
- **90% of that volume was deliberately excluded**: 278,040/mo of medical-definition demand
  ("pcos", "adenomyosis") and 175,400/mo of commodity ingredient demand ("magnesium
  glycinate"), because those results belong to healthdirect, Mayo Clinic and marketplaces and
  a supplement brand will not displace them. That left **87 commercial-intent terms at
  51,095 searches a month**.
- Chain: 51,095 x 12 = 613,140 a year. x 1.35 for the long tail the head terms sit on =
  **827,739 category searches a year**. x 0.20 (roughly one search in five survives ads,
  shopping carousels and AI answers as an organic click) = **165,548 winnable clicks a year**.

## Step 3: measure what you win today (the numerator)

Your own GSC queries, filtered to **Australia only** and run through the SAME
commercial-intent classifier as the basket (so numerator and denominator match on both intent
and geography): 2,602 named commercial clicks + a pro-rata share of Google's anonymised long
tail = **4,070 commercial clicks a year, which is 2.5% of the 165,548 pool**. 1% of the pool
is 1,655 clicks.

## Step 4: value a click, from Shopify

- GA4's landing-page split gives the conversion SHAPE: cold product-page visitors 5.16%, own
  product pages 8.56% (measured in the clean window before your June paid cut distorted
  last-click attribution).
- GA4 records 28.5% more transactions than Shopify records orders, so those rates are scaled
  by 0.778: 4.01% and 6.66%.
- Priced at Shopify's **new-customer average order value, $99.16** (Shopify reports this net
  of discounts and shipping; the gross works out at $111 a head, so $99.16 is the
  conservative side): floor 4.01% x 99.16 = **$3.98**, upper 6.66% x 99.16 = **$6.60**, model
  runs the midpoint **$5.29** per click. Blended conversion midpoint: 5.335%, i.e. about
  **1 click in 19 buys**.

## Step 5: the customer value ladder, from your cohort grid

Shopify > Analytics > Customer cohort analysis, metric "amount spent per customer",
cumulative:
- **First order ~$99** (the new-customer AOV above; the grid's month-0 gross is ~$114).
- **First year $207**: your September 2025 cohort (1,178 customers) tracked 12 months.
  October 2025: $210.
- **Lifetime $458 and still climbing**: your 2020 cohorts (24,700 customers, one-time buyers
  included) tracked 5.7 years. Your 2021 cohorts sit at $411 after 4.7 years. Because the
  older cohort is still adding spend, $458 is a floor, not a ceiling. Post-year-one spend
  runs at roughly $55 per customer per year, i.e. (411 - 207) / 3.7.
- Deliberately NOT used: total sales / new customers (= $795). It looks like lifetime value
  but overstates it when acquisition has shrunk, as yours has since 2021.

## Step 6: the scenario table

Customers = clicks x 5.335%. Each value column = customers x its rung ($99.16, $207,
$458.10), with customer counts carried unrounded (so a calculator on the rounded figures
lands a few dollars off; that is rounding, not error).

| Case | Share | Clicks/yr | Customers/yr | First-order $/yr | First-year $/yr | Lifetime $/yr |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Today | 2.5% | 4,070 | 217 | 21,530 | 44,947 | 99,469 |
| Conservative | 6% | 9,933 | 530 | 52,546 | 109,695 | 242,759 |
| Mid | 10% | 16,555 | 883 | 87,576 | 182,824 | 404,598 |
| High | 15% | 24,832 | 1,325 | 131,361 | 274,231 | 606,885 |

Scenario shares are benchmarked, not picked: Herbs of Gold, a comparable Australian
supplement brand, takes 3.7x your organic traffic on only 17% more ranking keywords, so the
mid case is roughly "perform like Herbs of Gold already does".

The 24-month chart is the same three columns interpolated: build to the mid row by month 12
(fractions 10% / 35% / 70% / 100% at months 3/6/9/12), then straight-line to the high row by
month 24. Chart endpoints equal the table cells exactly.

Stated tolerance: modelled, plus or minus 40%. Repeat behaviour beyond the $458 floor,
branded growth, and AI-assistant referral growth all sit outside the model.

## The GA4 problem (separate document)

GA4 overstates your revenue by ~33% because a second purchase tag on the order confirmation
fires most orders again, under a different transaction ID format, into both of your data
streams; and Klaviyo's non-standard UTMs push $2.03M of email revenue into "Unassigned".
Full diagnosis and the fix: `ga4-measurement-diagnosis.md`.

## Things you can check in five minutes

1. Shopify > Analytics: total sales 12 months = $9,525,231 on 76,726 orders.
2. Cohort analysis, 2020, amount spent per customer, cumulative = ~$458.
3. GSC: filter Australia, search "menopause supplements" = ~18,785 impressions at position ~6.
4. GA4 vs Shopify transactions = ~99,500 vs ~76,700. That gap is the rogue tag.